Baku, Azerbaijan. The first week of COP29 in Baku has been described as the worst in 15 years by Mohamed Adow, the director and founder of the climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa.
Adow expressed concerns that the slow progress in negotiations could jeopardize the success of the summit, highlighting issues such as climate finance, carbon market rules, emission reductions, and tracking progress on previous commitments.
Adow remarked that frustration was mounting, particularly among developing nations, with the presidency offering little hope for achieving the right compromises.
“This has been the worst first week of a COP in my 15 years attending these summits,” he said.
“There’s been limited progress on finance, the rules around carbon markets, how we’re going to cut emissions, and what we’re doing to track progress on previous commitments. The presidency isn’t giving any hope for how the world will strike the right compromises”.
He called on ministers from key developed nations, including the UK, Australia, Japan, Canada, and the EU, to come together constructively and resolve the deadlock.
“The world expects a clear signal on the financing of climate action, and we can’t afford to fail at this task here in Baku,” Adow added.
“Some people are starting to question the multilateral process, but COPs are like Winston Churchill’s description of democracy; they are the worst way of doing it except for all the other ways. This is the only meeting where every nation – rich and poor – gets a seat at the table”.
The issue of climate finance remains a central challenge at COP29. Adow pointed out the lack of clarity on the financial goals, the quality of the finance, and how it will be made accessible to vulnerable countries. The uncertainty surrounding these talks is compounded by the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, which has cast a shadow over the negotiations.
Fadhel Kaboub, an economist advising Power Shift Africa, sees COP29 as an opportunity for the global south to unite and secure the technology and resources needed to reshape the world economy.
Kaboub described the current climate finance model as “economic entrapment,” noting that despite Africa holding 40 percent of the world’s renewable energy resources, it attracts just two percent of global investments.
Africa’s challenges, including debt distress and high borrowing costs, leave the continent dependent on imports for basic needs.
Kaboub argues that to overcome these challenges, the developing world needs grants, technology transfers, and debt cancellation.
However, he also sees an opportunity in the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, suggesting that it could be a moment for developing nations to forge a bold deal. Under this deal, the global south could double its industrial footprint with green growth, powered by Western technology, in exchange for critical minerals needed for the energy transition. Kaboub pointed out that Africa holds between 20% and 90% of the world’s reserves for 11 minerals critical to the energy transition.
“The outcome could be a greener, richer world, with developing nations becoming key markets for foreign goods and services,” Kaboub said.
“Mr. Trump may find the allure of crafting the ‘deal of the century’ impossible to resist. Others, such as the EU or China, might also be ready to take up such an offer”.
Kaboub emphasized that COP29 must be a turning point, where developing nations unite to demand a fair and transformative global partnership for a sustainable future.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher, and neither could the opportunity to reshape the future,” he concluded.
As COP29 continues, the world waits to see whether the summit will produce the breakthroughs needed to address the urgent climate crisis, or whether the opportunity will be lost. The outcome of these negotiations will have lasting implications for global climate action and the future of the planet.